The Problem of Limited-Supply Agreements for Medicare Price Negotiation.

This Viewpoint discusses how limited-supply agreements (introduction of generic products in reduced volumes) might thwart efforts to negotiate lower prices on prescription drugs in the US.

Global hotspots of traded phylogenetic and functional diversity.

Wildlife trade is a multibillion-dollar industry1 targeting a hyperdiversity of species2 and can contribute to major declines in abundance3. A key question is understanding the global hotspots of wildlife trade for phylogenetic (PD) and functional (FD) diversity, which underpin the conservation of evolutionary history4, ecological functions5 and ecosystem services benefiting humankind6. Using a global dataset of traded bird and mammal species, we identify that the highest levels of traded PD and FD are from tropical regions, where high numbers of evolutionary distinct and globally endangered species in trade occur. The standardized effect size (ses) of traded PD and FD also shows strong tropical epicentres, with additional hotspots of mammalian ses.PD in the eastern United States and ses.FD in Europe. Large-bodied, frugivorous and canopy-dwelling birds and large-bodied mammals are more likely to be traded whereas insectivorous birds and diurnally foraging mammals are less likely. Where trade drives localized extinctions3, our results suggest substantial losses of unique evolutionary lineages and functional traits, with possible cascading effects for communities and ecosystems5,7. Avoiding unsustainable exploitation and lost community integrity requires targeted conservation efforts, especially in hotspots of traded phylogenetic and functional diversity.

Five-Year Sales for Newly Marketed Prescription Drugs With and Without Initial Orphan Drug Act Designation.

This study evaluates sales revenue earned in the first 5 years for newly marketed brand-name drugs with and without an initial orphan drug designation.

Associations Between COVID-19 Alcohol Policy Restrictions and Alcohol Sales in British Columbia: Variation by Area-Based Deprivation Level.

OBJECTIVE: Government alcohol sales data were used to investigate associations between estimates of per capita age 15+ alcohol consumption, policy restrictiveness, and area-level deprivation. METHOD: We analyzed weekly consumption data (expressed as per capita age 15+ Canadian standard drinks [13.45 g of pure ethanol]) collected from all 89 local health areas in British Columbia, Canada, between April 2017 and April 2021. Our analyses were stratified by outlet type (total, on-premise, and off-premise). Our intervention was alcohol policy restrictiveness (operationalized by the Restrictiveness of Alcohol Policy Index), and our moderator was area-level deprivation (Canadian Index of Multiple Deprivation). The Restrictiveness of Alcohol Policy Index included hours of trading, the number of people permitted on site for on-premise venues, the proportion of outlets in operation, and the extent of permissible home delivery. RESULTS: Higher policy restrictiveness was associated with decreased consumption across all outlet types (ps < .001): when the most restrictive policies were implemented, consumption was reduced by 9% and 100% in off- and on-premise outlets, respectively. Area-based deprivation level modified the effect of policy restriction on per capita alcohol consumption (ps < .007): for total and off-premise consumption, the decrease was greatest among more economically deprived areas (ps < .001); for on-premise outlets, areas with a high proportion of racial and ethnic minorities increased their consumption (ps < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol-specific policy restrictions implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with reduced consumption. However, the magnitude and direction of change was moderated by area-based deprivation level, albeit inconsistently across various deprivation measures.

Associations between the food environment and food and drink purchasing using large-scale commercial purchasing data: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence for an association between the local food environment, diet and diet-related disease is mixed, particularly in the UK. One reason may be the use of more distal outcomes such as weight status and cardiovascular disease, rather than more proximal outcomes such as food purchasing. This study explores associations between food environment exposures and food and drink purchasing for at-home and out-of-home (OOH) consumption. METHODS: We used item-level food and drink purchase data for London and the North of England, UK, drawn from the 2019 Kantar Fast Moving Consumer Goods panel to assess associations between food environment exposures and household-level take-home grocery (n=2,118) and individual-level out-of-home (n=447) food and drink purchasing. Density, proximity and relative composition measures were created for both supermarkets and OOH outlets (restaurants and takeaways) using a 1 km network buffer around the population-weighted centroid of households' home postcode districts. Associations between food environment exposure measures and frequency of take-home food and drink purchasing, total take-home calories, calories from fruits and vegetables, high fat, salt and sugar products, and ultra-processed foods (UPF), volume of take-home alcoholic beverages, and frequency of OOH purchasing were modelled using negative binomial regression adjusted for area deprivation, population density, and individual and household socio-economic characteristics. RESULTS: There was some evidence for an inverse association between distance to OOH food outlets and calories purchased from ultra-processed foods (UPF), with a 500 m increase in distance to the nearest OOH outlet associated with a 1.1% reduction in calories from UPF (IR=0.989, 95%CI 0.982-0.997, p=0.040). There was some evidence for region-specific effects relating to purchased volumes of alcohol. However, there was no evidence for an overall association between food environment exposures and take-home and OOH food and drink purchasing. CONCLUSIONS: Despite some evidence for exposure to OOH outlets and UPF purchases, this study finds limited evidence for the impact of the food environment on household food and drink purchasing. Nonetheless, region-specific effects regarding alcohol purchasing indicate the importance of geographical context for research and policy.

Wild birds trade in Dera Ismael Khan and Bannu divisions of Khyber PakhtunKhwa (KPK) Province, Pakistan / Comércio de aves selvagens nas divisões Dera Ismail Khan e Bannu da província de Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Paquistão

Wildlife trade is a profitable economic activity. Birds are among the most heavily traded animals worldwide, with numerous species threatened by pet trade. The present case study was stretched for period of one year to find out the status of wild birds’ trade in Bannu and Dera Ismael Khan Divisions. The study was aimed to find out the types of species, commercial prices of bird, trade routes, overall income generated from birds' trade and the status of dealers whether licensed or not. Bimonthly visits were conducted to interview 52 bird dealers/pet shops owners/venders (23 in Dera Ismael Khan and 29 in Bannu). A sum of 16 conceivable sites were visited during the study period. Out of these, 8 sites were located in Dera Ismael Khan and 8 sites in Bannu Division. The highest priced species was Demoiselle crane (Grus virgo) and the lowest priced species was house sparrow (Passer domesticus). Total number of species traded in both regions were 8 and 14 while the income generated by bird trade was amounting to PkR 1,322,200 and 7,128,950 in Dera Ismael Khan and Bannu respectively. Majority of the birds were trapped locally with the exception of few from adjacent areas. Commercial activity led by illegal bird traders was found 75% and 100% species in Dera Ismael Khan and Bannu respectively. There was no significant difference between prices of birds, number of species sold and income generated by bird trade in two divisions.

O comércio de animais selvagens é uma atividade econômica lucrativa. Os pássaros estão entre os animais mais comercializados em todo o mundo, com inúmeras espécies ameaçadas pelo comércio de animais de estimação. O presente estudo de caso foi estendido por um período de um ano para descobrir a situação do comércio de aves selvagens nas Divisões Bannu e Dera Ismael Khan. O estudo teve como objetivo descobrir os tipos de espécies, os preços comerciais das aves, as rotas comerciais, a receita geral gerada pelo comércio de aves e o status dos negociantes, licenciados ou não. Visitas bimestrais foram realizadas para entrevistar 52 comerciantes de pássaros / proprietários / vendedores de pet shops (23 em Dera Ismael Khan e 29 em Bannu). Uma soma de 16 locais concebíveis foram visitados durante o período de estudo. Destes, 8 sites estavam localizados em Dera Ismael Khan e 8 sites na Divisão Bannu. A espécie com preço mais alto foi o guindaste Demoiselle (Grus virgo) e a espécie com preço mais baixo foi o pardal (Passer domesticus). O número total de espécies comercializadas em ambas as regiões foi de 8 e 14, enquanto a receita gerada pelo comércio de aves foi de PkR 1.322.200 e 7.128.950 em Dera Ismael Khan e Bannu, respectivamente. A maioria das aves foi capturada localmente, com exceção de algumas das áreas adjacentes. A atividade comercial liderada por comerciantes ilegais de aves foi encontrada com 75% e 100% de espécies em Dera Ismael Khan e Bannu, respectivamente. Não houve diferença significativa entre os preços das aves, o número de espécies vendidas e a receita gerada pelo comércio de aves nas duas divisões.

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food prices: Evidence from storable and perishable commodities in India.

The supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 outbreak have led to changes in food prices globally. The impact of COVID-19 on the price of essential and perishable food items in developing and emerging economies has been lacking. Using a recent phone survey by the World Bank, this study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prices of the three essential food items in India. The results indicate that price of basic food items such as atta (wheat flour) and rice increased significantly during the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period. In contrast, during the same period, the price of onions declined significantly. The findings may suggest panic-buying, hoarding, and storability of food items. The results further reveal that remittance income and cash transfers from the government negatively affected commodity prices. Thus, this study's findings suggest that families may have shifted the demand away from essential foods during the pandemic.

Assessment of without prescription antibiotic dispensing at community pharmacies in Hazara Division, Pakistan: A simulated client's study.

Antibiotics dispensing without a prescription is an irrational practice and can increase the risk of antibiotic resistance, which is a significant public health concern around the globe. This study was aimed to determine the extent to which antibiotics are supplied without prescription in the community pharmacies (CPs) at Hazara Division from November 2020 to February 2021. The simulated client method (SCM) was used, and the data were gathered, recorded, and analyzed through different statistical methods with descriptive and inferential techniques. The antibiotic dispensing was observed in CPs (90.5%), the most dispensed antibiotics were azithromycin (29.4%) and ciprofloxacin (46.5%) respectively. Furthermore, visited medical stores/ drug outlets, 9.5% of the visited stores denied dispensing of antibiotics because they preferred a referral to visit physicians (23. 9%) and (12.8%) did not had the antibiotics at the time of visits. Antibiotics were more obtainable in retail medical stores (AOR = 8.6, 95 percent Cl: 3.0-24.7; p = 0.001) than in pharmacies. In rural areas antibiotics dispensing was more (p = 0.004) as compared to urban areas. Staff members also had asked about patient's (17.7%) symptoms and drug allergies (12.3% and 3.9%), and (1.5%) they consoled them about their medications. The findings of this study indicate that nonprescription antibiotic sales are very common, despite national rules prohibiting this activity. When the simulated Client requested for any medication to relieve his or her discomfort, many antibiotics were given out without a prescription. Pharmacies/medical stores in Hazara Division selling antibiotics without a prescription are worrying and need immediate action by regulators.

On the estimation of the fill rate for the continuous (s, S) inventory system for the lost sales context.

In the continuous review reorder point, base-stock (s, S) policy, the replenishment order is launched when the inventory position reaches the reorder point, s. It is commonly assumed that the inventory position is exactly equal to the reorder point at the moment the order is launched, when actually it could be lower at that moment. This implies neglecting the possible undershoots at the reorder point, which has a direct impact on the calculation of the expected shortages per replenishment cycle. This article presents a method for an exact calculation of the fill rate (fraction of demand that is immediately satisfied from shelf) which takes explicit account of the existence of undershoots and is applicable to any discrete demand distribution function in a context of lost sales. This method is based on the determination of the stock probability vector at the moment the replenishment order is launched. Furthermore, neglecting the undershoots is shown to lead to an overestimation of the fill rate, particularly when we move farther away from the unitary demand assumption. From a practical point of view, this behaviour involves underestimating the base-stock level, S, when a target fill rate is set for its determination. The method proposed in this paper overcomes these shortcomings.

Evaluation of Statewide Restrictions on Flavored e-Cigarette Sales in the US From 2014 to 2020.

Importance: e-Cigarettes are the most commonly used tobacco product among US youths. Flavors are among the most cited reasons for use of e-cigarettes among youths, and therefore, some states have imposed restrictions on flavored e-cigarette sales. To our knowledge, no study has compared e-cigarette sales between states with statewide flavored e-cigarette restrictions and states without such restrictions while controlling for co-occurring events. Objective: To assess whether implementation of statewide restrictions on flavored e-cigarette sales in Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, and Washington was associated with a reduction in total e-cigarette unit sales from 2014 to 2020. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study with difference-in-differences analysis used e-cigarette retail sales data from Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Washington, which implemented restrictions on flavored e-cigarette sales in October 2019; New York, which implemented these restrictions in May 2020; and 35 states without these restrictions (control states). Sales were summed into 4-week periods from August 24, 2014, to December 27, 2020, for a total of 2988 state-period observations. Main Outcomes and Measures: A difference-in-differences analysis was conducted to compare e-cigarette unit sales in the 4 states with flavor restrictions (before and after implementation) with those in the 35 control states. The model controlled for other population-based policies and emergent events (eg, the COVID-19 pandemic). Data on 4-week e-cigarette unit sales were sorted into 4 flavor categories (tobacco, menthol, mint, and other). Unit sales were standardized to reflect the most common package sizes for each product type. Results: Statewide restrictions on non-tobacco-flavored e-cigarette sales were associated with the following reductions in mean 4-week total e-cigarette sales in intervention states compared with control states from October 2019 to December 2020: 30.65% (95% CI, 24.08%-36.66%) in New York, 31.26% (95% CI, 11.94%-46.34%) in Rhode Island, and 25.01% (95% CI, 18.43%-31.05%) in Washington. In Massachusetts, the comprehensive sales prohibition of all e-cigarette products was associated with a 94.38% (95% CI, 93.37%-95.23%) reduction in 4-week sales compared with control states. Except in Massachusetts, where all sales of flavored e-cigarettes decreased, reductions were found only for non-tobacco-flavored e-cigarette sales in the other states with restrictions. Among control states, mean sales decreased by 28.4% from August 2019 to February 2020 but then increased by 49.9% from February through December 2020. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, statewide restrictions on the sale of flavored e-cigarettes in Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, and Washington were associated with a reduction in total e-cigarette sales. These findings suggest that not all e-cigarette users who purchased non-tobacco-flavored e-cigarettes switched to purchasing tobacco-flavored e-cigarettes after policy implementation.

Evaluation Method of Human Resource Management Efficiency of Chain Retail Enterprises Based on Distributed Database.

The calculation of human resource management efficiency evaluation method is large, which affects the technical efficiency and scale efficiency of evaluation results. Based on distributed database, an evaluation method of human resource management efficiency of chain retail enterprises is proposed. Genetic algorithm is applied to the design of distributed database to realize the best data allocation scheme. The distributed database is used to store the human resource information of chain retail enterprises to ensure the data consistency and information availability. Select the input and output elements that can best reflect the human resource management status of chain retail enterprises in the distributed database, design the management efficiency evaluation index system, and construct the DEA evaluation model. After testing, the technical efficiency and scale efficiency of the design method in this paper are higher than the evaluation methods of human resource management efficiency of chain retail enterprises based on principal component analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which is conducive to management decision-making.

Design of Fuzzy Aided Cognition System for International Economic and Trade Information under Supply Chain Management.

The existing fuzzy assistant cognition system has the problem of imperfect retrieval function, which leads to long execution time. This paper designs a fuzzy assistant cognition system of international economic and trade information under supply chain management. Hardware Part. Optimize wireless sensor and connect power interface and related accessories. In the software part, the dynamic characteristics of international economic and trade information elements are extracted, the flexible operation model of supply chain management is constructed, the demand-oriented organizational structure is established, the output set is determined by the product reasoning, and the retrieval function of fuzzy assistant cognitive system is designed by using the fuzzy association algorithm. Experimental Results. The average execution time of the fuzzy assistant cognitive system and the other two systems is 123.593 s, 165.733 s, and 169.506 s, which proves that the cognitive system integrated with supply chain management has a higher practical application value.

Price, quality, and market dynamics of malaria rapid diagnostic tests: analysis of Global Fund 2009-2018 data.

BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria are a vital part of global malaria control. Over the past decade, RDT prices have declined, and quality has improved. However, the relationship between price and product quality and their larger implications on the market have yet to be characterized. This analysis used purchase data from the Global Fund together with product quality data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND) Malaria RDT Product Testing Programme to understand three unanswered questions: (1) Has the market share by quality of RDTs in the Global Fund's procurement orders changed over time? (2) What is the relationship between unit price and RDT quality? (3) Has the market for RDTs financed by the Global Fund become more concentrated over time? METHODS: Data from 10,075 procurement transactions in the Global Fund's database, which includes year, product, volume, and price, was merged with product quality data from all eight rounds of the WHO-FIND programme, which evaluated 227 unique RDT products. To describe trends in market share by quality level of RDT, descriptive statistics were used to analyse trends in market share from 2009 to 2018. A generalized linear regression model was then applied to characterize the relationship between price and panel detection score (PDS), adjusting for order volume, year purchased, product type, and manufacturer. Third, a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score was calculated to characterize the degree of market concentration. RESULTS: Lower-quality RDTs have lost market share between 2009 and 2018, as have the highest-quality RDTs. No statistically significant relationship between price per test and PDS was found when adjusting for order volume, product type, and year of purchase. The HHI was 3,570, indicating a highly concentrated market. CONCLUSIONS: Advancements in RDT affordability, quality, and access over the past decade risk stagnation if health of the RDT market as a whole is neglected. These results suggest that from 2009 to 2018, this market was highly concentrated and that quality was not a distinguishing feature between RDTs. This information adds to previous reports noting concerns about the long-term sustainability of this market. Further research is needed to understand the causes and implications of these trends.

Front-of-Pack Labeling in Chile: Effects on Employment, Real Wages, and Firms' Profits after Three Years of Its Implementation.

This study evaluates the impact of Chile's innovative law on Food Labeling and Advertising, enacted in June 2016, on employment and real wages and profit margins for the food and beverage manufacturing sectors in the 2016-2019 period, using unique company-specific monthly data from Chile's tax collection agency (measuring aggregate employment, real wages, average size of firms, and gross profit margins of the food and beverage manufacturing sector). Interrupted-time series analyses (ITSA) on administrative data from tax-paying firms was used and compared to synthetic control groups of sectors not affected by the regulations. ITSA results show no effect on aggregate employment nor on the average size of the firms, while they show negligible effects on real wages and gross margin of profits (as proportion of total sales), after the first two stages of the implementation (36 months), despite significant decreases in consumption in certain categories (sugar-sweetened beverages, breakfast cereals, etc.). Despite the large declines found in purchases of unhealthy foods, employment did not change and impacts on other economic outcomes were small. Though Chile's law, is peculiar there is no reason to believe that if similar regulations were adopted elsewhere, they would have different results.

Impact of the Seattle Sweetened Beverage Tax on substitution to alcoholic beverages.

INTRODUCTION: Taxes are increasingly used as a policy tool aimed at reducing consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), given their association with adverse health outcomes including type 2 diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular disease. However, a potential unintended consequence of such a policy could be that the tax induces substitution to alcoholic beverages. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the $0.0175 per ounce Seattle, Washington, Sweetened Beverage Tax (SBT) on volume sold of alcoholic beverages. METHODS: A difference-in-differences estimation approach was used drawing on universal product code-level food store scanner data on beer (N = 1059) and wine (N = 2655) products one-year pre-tax (February-November, 2017) and one and two-years post-tax (February-November, 2018 and 2019) with Portland, Oregon, as the comparison site. RESULTS: At two-years post-tax implementation, volume sold of beer in Seattle relative to Portland increased by 7% (ratio of incidence rate ratios [RIRR] = 1.07, 95% CI:1.00,1.15), whereas volume sold of wine decreased by 3% (RIRR = 0.97, 95% CI:0.95,1.00). Overall alcohol (both beer and wine) volume sold increased in Seattle compared to Portland by 4% (RIRR = 1.04, 95% CI:1.01,1.07) at one-year post-tax and by 5% (RIRR = 1.05, 95% CI:1.00,1.10) at two-years post-tax. The implied SSB cross-price elasticities of demand for beer and wine, respectively, were calculated to be 0.35 and -0.15. CONCLUSIONS: There was evidence of substitution to beer following the implementation of the Seattle SSB tax. Continued monitoring of potential unintended outcomes related to the implementation of SSB taxes is needed in future tax evaluations.

Human mobility data and machine learning reveal geographic differences in alcohol sales and alcohol outlet visits across U.S. states during COVID-19.

As many U.S. states implemented stay-at-home orders beginning in March 2020, anecdotes reported a surge in alcohol sales, raising concerns about increased alcohol use and associated ills. The surveillance report from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism provides monthly U.S. alcohol sales data from a subset of states, allowing an investigation of this potential increase in alcohol use. Meanwhile, anonymized human mobility data released by companies such as SafeGraph enables an examination of the visiting behavior of people to various alcohol outlets such as bars and liquor stores. This study examines changes to alcohol sales and alcohol outlet visits during COVID-19 and their geographic differences across states. We find major increases in the sales of spirits and wine since March 2020, while the sales of beer decreased. We also find moderate increases in people's visits to liquor stores, while their visits to bars and pubs substantially decreased. Noticing a significant correlation between alcohol sales and outlet visits, we use machine learning models to examine their relationship and find evidence in some states for likely panic buying of spirits and wine. Large geographic differences exist across states, with both major increases and decreases in alcohol sales and alcohol outlet visits.

The adaptive market hypothesis and high frequency trading.

This paper uses NASDAQ order book data for the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY) to examine the relationship between one-minute, informational market efficiency and high frequency trading (HFT). We find that the level of efficiency varies widely over time and appears to cluster. Periods of high efficiency are followed by periods of low efficiency and vice versa. Further, we find that HFT activity is higher during periods of low efficiency. This supports the argument that HFTs seek profits and risk reduction by actively processing information, through limit order additions and cancellations, during periods of lower efficiency and revert to more passive market-making and rebate-generation during periods of higher efficiency. These findings support the argument that the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) is an appropriate description of how prices evolve to incorporate information.